If Roe Goes
What will happen if the Supreme Court kills Roe v Wade?
Now that Amey Coney Barret is being confirmed, there is now a chance that Roe v Wade, the Supreme Court precedent protecting abortion rights, will be overturned. Let’s go into the likelihood that this comes to pass, the legal mechanics of abortion access, and the real-world consequences this would have.
Despite the fact that it’s possible, I don’t view overturning Roe v Wade as likely. That’s because it’s not clear how many anti-Roe votes sit on the court. The three Democratic justices, along with John Roberts, are on record as pro-Roe. Justices Thomas, Alito, and Amy Coney Barrett are likely anti-Roe, but the positions of Kavanaugh and Gorsuch are not crystal clear. Both seem more loyal to the business wing of the GOP than the Christian right, and they may listen to Roberts if he counsels them to only chip away at Roe, rather than repeal it completely.
Even if Roe is overturned, Democrats may take action to bring it back. Biden has promised, if elected, to appoint a commission to study reforming the Supreme Court, and a repeal of Roe would certainly add momentum to those efforts, which may include expanding the court’s size and “packing” it with more liberal justices. If a case with the potential to overturn Roe comes before the court, merely threatening this approach may be enough to bring the court in line, just as it was when FDR used the threat of expansion to bring the conservative Supreme Court to heel in the 1930s.
But let’s say Roe does indeed go. What happens then? Overturning Roe would likely turn abortion rights over to each individual state, and several have already passed laws that explicitly outlaw abortion in the event Roe becomes overturned. A Democrat-controlled Congress may attempt to pre-empt such bans with a new federal abortion law, but let’s assume that doesn’t work either. What happens next?
First, it is likely that a variety of efforts will be made to help women (and other people who have uteruses) who seek abortion access find it in other states. Abortion rights groups will likely help fund travel for women who can’t afford to go out of state. Other charity networks, such as GoFundMe, will help.
There will also likely be an effort made to help provide women with free or low-cost access to the “Morning After” pill, in addition to other contraceptive and abortifacient medicine. A study of women in Ireland who lacked legal access to abortion showed zero deaths in 2016 through these methods. Yes, zero.
There is no doubt that some women will turn to “back alley” clinics, or might try dangerous, at home methods. It is probable that in the first few years of restrictions, dozens of women may need hospitalization from these efforts, and a handful might even die, and each of those deaths is a tragedy.
On an unrelated note, 45,000 Americans die every year from not being able to afford to go to the doctor. Joe Biden’s healthcare plan, if it passes, will reduce this number, but will still allow 125k to die over the next decade.
